Consider the following gambling game with a standard deck of 52 distinct cards (4 suits × 13 ranks):
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The deck is thoroughly shuffled; all
52!
permutations are equally likely.
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Cards are turned face up
one at a time
from the top of the deck until all 52 cards have been revealed.
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Before
each card is turned over, you must guess the exact identity of that card (rank and suit).
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If your guess is correct, you earn $1. There is no penalty for incorrect guesses.
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You are allowed to use any strategy, and may base each guess on all information observed so far (i.e., all previously revealed cards).
Assume you are risk-neutral and want to maximize your expected total winnings.
Questions:
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What is the maximum possible expected number of correct guesses (and hence expected winnings in dollars) under an optimal strategy?
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Based on this expectation, approximately how much would you be willing to pay to play this game once (i.e., what is a reasonable approximate fair entry price)?
Explain your reasoning and any probabilistic arguments you use.