Decide when CTR falls but revenue rises

Quick Overview

This question evaluates understanding of A/B experimentation, auction-based ad metrics, metric decomposition for revenue impact, causal diagnostics for hidden heterogeneity (e.g., Simpson’s paradox), and executive-level results presentation within the Analytics & Experimentation domain.

Decide when CTR falls but revenue rises

Company: Meta

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Analytics & Experimentation

Difficulty: hard

Interview Round: Onsite

You run an ads-ranking A/B. Results (treatment vs control, user-level): CTR −3.0% (p=0.02), CPM +6.0% (p=0.04), impressions/user +1.5% (p=0.08), revenue per thousand impressions (RPM) +4.0% (p=0.05), purchase conversion on click −0.8% (p=0.20). (1) Create a decision framework to recommend 'ship/hold' using a north star (e.g., revenue or advertiser value) and guardrails (user experience, integrity). (2) Quantify the net revenue delta per 1M impressions and decompose drivers in a waterfall (CPM, CTR, CVR). (3) Specify additional diagnostics (pacing, bid landscape shifts, supply mix, user segments) to catch Simpson’s paradox. (4) If presenting to the CFO, which visuals do you include on one slide (e.g., forest plot of segment effects with CIs, waterfall of drivers, traffic allocation/SRM chart), and what headline would you use?

Quick Answer: This question evaluates understanding of A/B experimentation, auction-based ad metrics, metric decomposition for revenue impact, causal diagnostics for hidden heterogeneity (e.g., Simpson’s paradox), and executive-level results presentation within the Analytics & Experimentation domain.

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Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
hardData ScientistOnsiteAnalytics & Experimentation
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Ads-Ranking A/B Test: Decision, Decomposition, Diagnostics, and Exec Readout

Context

You ran a user-level A/B test of a new ads-ranking model. The treatment vs. control results are:

  • CTR: −3.0% (p = 0.02)
  • CPM: +6.0% (p = 0.04)
  • Impressions per user: +1.5% (p = 0.08)
  • RPM (revenue per thousand impressions): +4.0% (p = 0.05)
  • Purchase conversion on click (CVR_on_click): −0.8% (p = 0.20)

Assume RPM is net revenue per 1,000 ad impressions. CPM is advertiser cost per 1,000 impressions. The auction mix likely includes CPC/CPA inventory, so eCPM is a function of bids and predicted outcomes.

Tasks

  1. Create a decision framework to recommend ship or hold using a north star metric (e.g., revenue or advertiser value) with guardrails (user experience, advertiser outcomes, integrity), and apply it to the given results.
  2. Quantify the net revenue delta per 1,000,000 impressions and decompose drivers in a waterfall using CPM, CTR, and CVR.
  3. Specify additional diagnostics (pacing, bid landscape shifts, supply mix, user segments) that could reveal Simpson’s paradox or hidden heterogeneity.
  4. If presenting to the CFO, specify which visuals to include on one slide (e.g., forest plot of segment effects with CIs, waterfall of drivers, traffic allocation/SRM chart) and provide the headline.
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