Determine Probability of Video Selection and Impact Evaluation

Quick Overview

This interview question evaluates statistical assumptions, formulas, estimation strategy, uncertainty, edge cases, and interpretation in a realistic interview setting. A strong answer for Determine Probability of Video Selection and Impact Evaluation states assumptions, handles edge cases, explains trade-offs, and shows how to validate the result clearly.

Determine Probability of Video Selection and Impact Evaluation

Company: Meta

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Onsite

##### Scenario Designing a video-recommendation push system: selecting k videos from a large inventory and evaluating product impact between friends. ##### Question a) From an inventory of N videos, what is the probability a specific ordered set of k videos is pushed to a user? What about any unordered subset of size k? b) Given an event’s probability, compute its complementary probability and apply it to the video-selection context. c) Should we push the same video to two friends or different videos? Discuss pros, cons, and expected metrics impact. d) Which statistical or machine-learning model would you use for this recommendation problem and why? ##### Hints Use permutation/combination formulas, complementary events, discuss CTR vs. content diversity, and mention models like collaborative filtering or sequence models.

Overview: This interview question evaluates statistical assumptions, formulas, estimation strategy, uncertainty, edge cases, and interpretation in a realistic interview setting. A strong answer for Determine Probability of Video Selection and Impact Evaluation states assumptions, handles edge cases, explains trade-offs, and shows how to validate the result clearly.

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Aug 4, 2025
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Determine Probability of Video Selection and Impact Evaluation

Video Recommendation Push: Selection Probabilities, Complements, and Design Choices

Scenario

You are designing a push-notification system that recommends k videos to a user from a large catalog of N videos. You also need to reason about whether to push the same or different videos to two friends and how to model this recommendation problem.

Assumption (unless otherwise stated): The system selects k distinct videos without replacement. If order is relevant (e.g., top-1, top-2, …), we treat the result as an ordered list; otherwise as an unordered set.

Questions

a) From an inventory of N videos, what is the probability that a specific ordered set of k distinct videos is pushed to a user? What about any specific unordered subset of size k?

b) Given an event’s probability p, compute its complementary probability and apply it to the video-selection context (e.g., the probability that at least one of a set of m target videos appears in the k selected videos).

c) For two friends, should we push the same video to both or different videos? Discuss pros, cons, and expected impact on metrics.

d) Which statistical or machine-learning model(s) would you use for this recommendation problem and why?

Clarifying Questions to Ask Guidance

  • Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
  • Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
  • Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.

What a Strong Answer Covers Guidance

  • A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
  • A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
  • Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
  • Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.

Follow-up Questions Guidance

  • How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
  • Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
  • What is the most likely source of estimation error?
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