Drive product decisions with causal product sense

Quick Overview

This question evaluates a data scientist's competency in causal inference and product experimentation design, specifically handling interference/spillovers, defining success metrics and guardrails, applying variance reduction techniques, computing power and MDE for cluster RCTs, planning sequential monitoring, and framing rollout decisions.

Drive product decisions with causal product sense

Company: TikTok

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Analytics & Experimentation

Difficulty: hard

Interview Round: Technical Screen

For a new paywall with likely spillovers (users share links), define success metrics and choose an experimentation strategy. Address: (a) where interference is probable and how to mitigate it (cluster randomization by network/geo, exposure models); (b) primary metric, north-star, and guardrails (e.g., retention, complaints); (c) variance reduction via CUPED or pre-exposure covariates; (d) power and MDE for a cluster RCT with ICC = 0.05 and 30 clusters—state assumptions and calculations; (e) sequential monitoring, alpha spending, and peeking risks; (f) a rollout decision framework balancing revenue lift against retention risk and long-term effects.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates a data scientist's competency in causal inference and product experimentation design, specifically handling interference/spillovers, defining success metrics and guardrails, applying variance reduction techniques, computing power and MDE for cluster RCTs, planning sequential monitoring, and framing rollout decisions.

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Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
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Experimenting on a New Paywall with Likely Spillovers

Context

You are designing an experiment to evaluate a new paywall on a social/content app where users frequently share links with each other and externally. Because of sharing and algorithmic amplification, user outcomes may be affected by other users' treatment assignments (interference/spillovers), violating standard A/B test assumptions.

Task

Define success metrics and choose an experimentation strategy that handles interference. Address all parts concisely and concretely.

Requirements

(a) Interference and mitigation

  • Identify where interference is most probable (e.g., sharing links, followers/creators, households, algorithm training).
  • Propose mitigation options (e.g., cluster randomization by social network or geo, randomized saturation, exposure models).

(b) Metrics

  • Define a primary metric, a north-star metric, and guardrails (e.g., retention, complaints), including measurement windows and units of analysis.

(c) Variance reduction

  • Describe how you would use CUPED or pre-exposure covariates, and at what level (user/cluster), without inducing bias.

(d) Power and MDE for a cluster RCT

  • With ICC = 0.05 and 30 clusters total, state your assumptions and show the MDE calculation for a binary primary outcome. Show formulas and at least one numeric example.

(e) Sequential monitoring

  • Outline an alpha-spending approach, risks of peeking, and how many looks you would plan.

(f) Rollout decision

  • Propose a decision framework balancing short-term revenue lift against retention risk and potential long-term effects (network health, creator reactions), including thresholds or expected-value logic.
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