Freemium + Subscription Sizing, Margins, and Marketing Impact (Year 3)
Context
You are evaluating a freemium enterprise collaboration app ("Share Workplace") three years after launch. Users flow through a funnel from site visits to sign-ups, to actives, to paid subscriptions. Both free and paid cohorts monetize (subscriptions for paid; ads/upsell for free). Variable COGS apply to both cohorts, and the company spends on paid marketing to drive a portion of visits.
Assume reasonable funnel, monetization, cost, and marketing parameters where not provided. Show clear formulas and step-by-step math. Keep unit economics visible.
Tasks
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Size the annual revenue opportunity for the paid tier in Year 3 (12 months ending month 36).
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Using separate ARPU assumptions for paid and free cohorts, compute:
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Cohort-level contribution margins (paid and free, excluding marketing).
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Total contribution margin (including marketing spend).
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If marketing spend increases by 20% at the start of Year 3, estimate the impact on:
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Subscriber count (paid) and free MAU in Year 3.
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Profitability in Year 3 and at steady-state.
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Clearly state any assumptions.
Hint: Structure the funnel (site visits → sign-ups → active → paid), keep unit economics visible, show math clearly.