Using "% of users with contacts synced" as a growth driver
Context
You are a data scientist at a consumer fintech app with strong network effects in peer-to-peer interactions. Leadership wants to use the metric "% of users with contacts synced" to drive growth and evaluate experiments. Assume:
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Contacts synced means the user has granted permission and at least one contact has been successfully uploaded and processed within a recent window (for example, last 90 days).
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The true-north business metric (TN) is a volume/engagement outcome such as active transacting users or payment volume.
Question
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How would you position this percentage metric as a meaningful goal for stakeholders?
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Describe a framework to set a realistic 2025 target for this metric.
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During an A/B test the percentage increases but the true-north business metric does not—how would you investigate and respond?
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If an A/B test is infeasible, what causal-inference approach(es) would you use to estimate the impact of contact syncing?