Controlled TV Advertising Experiment: Incremental Website Sign-ups
Context
You are asked to design a controlled experiment to quantify the incremental impact of TV ads on website sign-ups. TV here includes linear TV and/or CTV that can be purchased at a geographic level (e.g., DMA). You have historical web sign-ups by geo and time and can avoid national TV during the test window.
Task
Design the experiment and specify:
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Hypothesis (H0/H1).
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Randomization method and experimental unit (e.g., geo holdouts) and how you’ll select/stratify markets.
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Rollout design and timeline (including time-based ON/OFF if used) and how you’ll handle carryover/adstock.
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KPIs (primary, secondary, guardrails) and how you’ll measure lift.
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Required sample size, MDE, power, and test length; show how you’d compute it and provide a concrete numeric example.
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Success criteria (statistical and business/ROI).
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Key risks and mitigations (e.g., spillover across geos, concurrent channels, seasonality).
Hint: Consider geo holdouts, time-based rollout, and lift measurement.