Partner-Referral Conversions Fell After App Pop-up: Diagnose, Quantify, and Decide
Context
You are an analytics data scientist at a consumer marketplace. A blocking splash pop-up prompting visitors to download the mobile app was launched on mobile web. Soon after, the partner-referral channel shows a sharp drop in first-time purchaser conversions. Overall online traffic volume is unchanged.
Tasks
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Causal diagnosis: How would you investigate and confirm the pop-up caused the conversion drop from partner links?
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Trade-off quantification: Assuming traffic is unchanged, how would you quantify the trade-off between app-download uplift and lost first-purchase conversions?
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Decision framework: Which metrics and experiment design would you propose to decide whether to keep, modify, or remove the pop-up?