Scenario
A ride-hailing company has updated its rider ETA-prediction algorithm (the ETA shown to riders before they request a trip) and wants to quantify the marketplace impact on both demand (riders) and supply (drivers).
Task
Design an experiment to measure how the new rider-ETA model affects the business.
Questions
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Which primary success metrics would you track on the demand and supply sides?
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What intermediate or leading indicators would you monitor?
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Would you pick a classic A/B test or a synthetic-control approach? Explain the design, randomization unit, duration, and how you would interpret results.
Hints
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Map the customer → marketplace funnel; define guardrail KPIs.
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Consider network interference, seasonality, and statistical power before choosing between parallel A/B and geo-level synthetic control.