Choose the Primary Goal for a New Subscriber-Only Benefit

You are the PM/data lead for a subscription product planning a new subscriber-only benefit. The interviewer will not specify the business goal. Before any build, select the primary goal among:

• Retention (reduce subscriber churn)
• Acquisition/conversion to subscriber (increase non-subscriber to subscriber conversion)
• Revenue per subscriber (increase ARPU)

Provide a decision framework that includes:

1. Three concrete leading indicators and three falsifiable hypotheses you would use to decide the goal before building.
2. The minimum data you require (metrics, time windows, and key segments), and what you will do if crucial data are missing.
3. A crisp choice of primary goal given these hypothetical signals: subscriber monthly churn rose from 4.8% to 5.4% over the last two months; non-subscriber→subscriber conversion is flat at 1.2%; ARPU increased 3% from price mix.
4. Risks of picking the wrong goal and a mitigation/rollback plan with dates and kill criteria.