Investigating a YoY Drop in Weekly Average Likes per User
Context
You are a Data Scientist evaluating a social app where the weekly average likes per user (LPU) has declined year over year (YoY). Assume you have access to instrumentation for both numerator and denominator, including events like: like_tap, like_write_success, like_counted, session_start, feed_impression (exposure), and DAU/WAU definitions.
Tasks
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Arithmetic decomposition: Decompose LPU into factors to enumerate mutually exclusive root causes of a YoY decline. Provide a factor tree and highlight cases like stable likes with user count up due to low-engagement new users.
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Investigation plan: Propose a step-by-step plan to distinguish technical issues from behavioral changes and to pinpoint problematic segments. Include:
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Diagnostics you would run first
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Decision thresholds for escalation
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An action plan for both a "bad" underperforming segment to fix and a "good" overperforming segment to expand
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Validation: Specify how you would validate root causes and proposed fixes using experiments.