Estimating Sign-ups from a Super Bowl QR Code Ad

Background

A cryptocurrency company airs a national Super Bowl commercial featuring a bouncing QR code. Viewers who scan and complete sign-up receive a $15 coupon.

Assume “successful sign-up” means a new, verified account (including KYC) completed within a 7-day attribution window after exposure to the ad.

Task

How would you estimate the total number of successful sign-ups generated by this advertisement? Outline a practical approach that:

1. Defines the metric and attribution window.
2. Proposes a top-down funnel model from audience to verified sign-ups.
3. Uses available data (QR/landing/app logs, coupon issuance/redemption, app store installs) to build a bottom-up measurement.
4. Separates incremental lift from background activity.
5. Validates assumptions with sampling or controlled experiments.

Hints

• Audience size and attention (TV + streaming reach; fraction actively watching during the spot)
• Scan rate (given attention), landing success, app install, account creation, KYC completion
• Historical comps for conversion rates and coupon redemption lag
• Coupon issuance vs redemption as a proxy
• Methods to validate assumptions: short-window sampling, randomized QR parameters, geographic/time holdouts, pre/post baselines, difference-in-differences