Scenario
A large consumer web/mobile product sees its key business metric drop materially and suddenly.
Assume: The sitewide purchase conversion rate fell by 12% relative (e.g., 10.0% → 8.8%) starting Tuesday 10:00 AM and persisting for several days.
Task
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List plausible causes for the performance drop.
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For each cause, describe specific analyses you would run to validate or falsify it (be concrete about cuts, comparisons, and supporting logs/metadata).
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Choose your main hypothesis and design an A/B test to confirm it, including:
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Hypothesis and treatment/control design
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Randomization unit and exposure
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Sample size, duration, and analysis plan
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Specify primary and guardrail metrics you would track and why.
Hints
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Use segmentation (e.g., device, geo, channel, app version), funnel breakouts, external factors, and a metric hierarchy (north-star vs. input vs. health).
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Consider data quality and release/flag timelines alongside user behavior.