A/B Test Paradox Across Two Cities
Scenario
You ran an A/B test in two geographies (City X and City Y). Within each city, variant A outperforms variant B. However, when you pool the data across both cities, the combined result shows variant B performing better than A.
Questions
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How would you interpret these conflicting results?
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What decision would you make for rollout?
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What additional analysis is needed before rollout?
Hints to Consider
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Simpson’s paradox and the role of confounders (e.g., city)
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Weighting by traffic and defining the correct estimand
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Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) across strata
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Stratified analysis or meta-analysis approaches
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Checking sample size, power, and data quality (e.g., SRM)