Probability a negative review came from a lazy reviewer

Q: Probability a negative review came from a lazy reviewer

This question evaluates a candidate's understanding of Bayesian inference and conditional probability, focusing on computing posterior probabilities using Bayes' theorem.

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Question

Bayesian posterior: Did a negative review come from a lazy reviewer?

Context and assumptions

Reviewer types in the population:
- Lazy reviewers: 20% of all reviewers; they never leave negative feedback (i.e., always positive).
- Careful reviewers: 80% of all reviewers; they leave positive feedback 60% of the time and negative 40% of the time.

Question

Given that you observe a negative review, what is the probability it was written by a lazy reviewer? (Hint: use Bayes' theorem.)

Probability a negative review came from a lazy reviewer

Bayesian posterior: Did a negative review come from a lazy reviewer?

Context and assumptions

Question

Solution

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