Analyze Causes of November and June Shopify Traffic Spikes
Analyzing Recurring and One-off Spikes in Weekly Shopify Sessions
Scenario
You have a three-year weekly time-series of Shopify shopping sessions. The plot shows:
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A pronounced spike every November.
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An additional isolated spike in June of the third year.
Assume you have access to a dataset of weekly sessions with a date field, and optionally common marketing dimensions (e.g., country/region, channel/source, device, campaign/UTM). If the dataset is daily, you can aggregate to weekly.
Tasks
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Explain plausible business drivers for the recurring November spikes and the one-off June spike.
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Using the dataset (choose Python, R, or Google Sheets), outline how you would explore the spikes and propose at least two concrete hypotheses to validate with additional data.
Hints
Consider: seasonality (e.g., Black Friday/Cyber Monday), marketing campaigns, external events, segmentation by geography or channel, product or tracking changes, and data quality checks.
Constraints & Assumptions
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Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
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If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
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Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
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Clarify the business objective, unit of analysis, time window, exposure definition, and primary metric.
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State assumptions about instrumentation, randomization, sample size, and data quality.
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Separate descriptive analysis from causal claims.
What a Strong Answer Covers
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A metric framework with primary, guardrail, and diagnostic metrics.
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A credible analysis or experiment design with clear assumptions and bias checks.
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SQL/statistical logic for segmentation, variance, confidence, and data validation where relevant.
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An actionable recommendation that explains trade-offs and next steps.
Follow-up Questions
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What sanity checks would you run before trusting the result?
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How would you handle novelty effects, seasonality, or selection bias?
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What decision would you make if metrics disagree?