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Analyze profits under random walk and Brownian motion

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

Analyze profits under random walk and Brownian motion evaluates statistical assumptions, formulas, estimation strategy, uncertainty, edge cases, and interpretation in a realistic interview setting. A strong answer states assumptions, handles edge cases, explains trade-offs, and shows how to validate the result clearly.

  • hard
  • Citadel
  • Statistics & Math
  • Data Scientist

Analyze profits under random walk and Brownian motion

Company: Citadel

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: hard

Interview Round: Technical Screen

Consider a simple symmetric random walk (S_t) for t = 0, 1, ..., T with S_0 = 0 and increments X_t = S_t − S_{t−1} that are i.i.d. with P(X_t = + 1) = P(X_t = − 1) = 1/2. Trading strategy: for each t in {1, ..., T}, after observing the change from t−1 to t, open one unit position at price S_t: go long if X_t = +1 and short if X_t = −1. Hold all opened positions until time T and liquidate everything at price S_T. Let P_T be the total profit at time T (sum over all positions, where each long contributes S_T − S_t and each short contributes −(S_T − S_t)). ( 1) Compute E[P_T] and Var(P_T). ( 2) Now consider an alternative one-step strategy: at each t you take a unit position based on X_t but close it immediately at time t+1; compute the expectation and variance of the one-step profit and of the cumulative profit after T steps. ( 3) Generalize part ( 1) to a biased walk with P(X_t = + 1) = p ≠ 1/2. ( 4) Suppose the price follows standard Brownian motion B_t with B_0 = 0. Sample at discrete times t_k = kΔ, apply the same trading rule using increments B_{t_k} − B_{t_{k−1}}, and discuss the limits of E and Var of the profit as Δ → 0; state any additional assumptions you need and whether the limit is well-defined.

Quick Answer: Analyze profits under random walk and Brownian motion evaluates statistical assumptions, formulas, estimation strategy, uncertainty, edge cases, and interpretation in a realistic interview setting. A strong answer states assumptions, handles edge cases, explains trade-offs, and shows how to validate the result clearly.

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|Home/Statistics & Math/Citadel

Analyze profits under random walk and Brownian motion

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Citadel
Aug 1, 2025, 12:00 AM
hardData ScientistTechnical ScreenStatistics & Math
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Analyze profits under random walk and Brownian motion

Random-Walk Trading Rules: Expectation and Variance

Setup

  • Let (S_t) be a simple random walk for t = 0, 1, ..., T with S_0 = 0.
  • Increments X_t = S_t − S_{t−1} are i.i.d. with P(X_t = +1) = P(X_t = −1) = 1/2 unless otherwise stated.
  • A long position opened at price S_t and closed at S_T earns S_T − S_t. A short earns −(S_T − S_t).

Tasks

  1. Hold-to-T strategy (symmetric walk): For t = 1, ..., T, after observing X_t, open one unit at price S_t: go long if X_t = +1, short if X_t = −1. Hold all positions until time T and liquidate at S_T. Let P_T = total profit = Σ_{t=1}^T [X_t · (S_T − S_t)]. Compute E[P_T] and Var(P_T).
  2. One-step strategy (symmetric walk): At each t you take a unit position based on X_t but close immediately at time t+1. Let the one-step profit be Y_t and the cumulative profit be Q_T = Σ_{t=1}^{T−1} Y_t (there are T−1 complete one-step trades). Compute E[Y_t], Var(Y_t), E[Q_T], Var(Q_T).
  3. Hold-to-T strategy (biased walk): Now assume P(X_t = +1) = p (≠ 1/2). Compute E[P_T] and Var(P_T).
  4. Brownian-price limit: Suppose price follows standard Brownian motion (B_t) with B_0 = 0. Sample at times t_k = kΔ over a fixed horizon H = nΔ, and apply the same hold-to-H trading rule based on observed increments ΔB_k = B_{t_k} − B_{t_{k−1}}. Discuss the limits of E and Var of profit as Δ → 0. State any additional assumptions and whether the limit is well-defined.

Constraints & Assumptions

  • Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
  • If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
  • Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.

Clarifying Questions to Ask

  • Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
  • Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
  • Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.

What a Strong Answer Covers

  • A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
  • A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
  • Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
  • Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.

Follow-up Questions

  • How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
  • Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
  • What is the most likely source of estimation error?
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