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Analyze regression to mean in heavy-tailed shares

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates statistical reasoning about heavy-tailed metrics and cohort dynamics, covering concepts like regression to the mean, variance differences in extreme quantile cohorts, time-series seasonality, and temporal stability of quantiles.

  • medium
  • Meta
  • Analytics & Experimentation
  • Data Scientist

Analyze regression to mean in heavy-tailed shares

Company: Meta

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Analytics & Experimentation

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Onsite

Daily shares per user are right-skewed with a long tail. On Day 1, form two cohorts: users at the 50th percentile (p50) and users at the 95th percentile (p95) of the Day-1 daily-share distribution. Over the next 14 days, (a) Predict how each cohort’s mean daily shares will evolve and explain the role of regression to the mean vs genuine behavioral differences. (b) Which cohort should exhibit larger day-to-day variance and why? (c) Describe how weekly seasonality (e.g., weekends) will appear in the cohort time series and how you would adjust for it. (d) Outline an analysis to test whether quantiles (e.g., p50, p95) are temporally stable for this metric.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates statistical reasoning about heavy-tailed metrics and cohort dynamics, covering concepts like regression to the mean, variance differences in extreme quantile cohorts, time-series seasonality, and temporal stability of quantiles.

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Meta
Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
Data Scientist
Onsite
Analytics & Experimentation
1
0

Cohort Dynamics of a Right-Skewed Daily Shares Metric

Context

  • You have a right-skewed metric: daily shares per user, with a long tail.
  • On Day 1, you form two cohorts based on each user's Day-1 value:
    • p50 cohort: users around the 50th percentile of the Day-1 distribution.
    • p95 cohort: users around the 95th percentile of the Day-1 distribution.
  • You then track each cohort’s mean daily shares for the next 14 days (e.g., Days 2–15), counting zeros for users who do not share.
  • Assume cohorts are formed using narrow bands around the quantiles to ensure sufficient sample size (e.g., ±1 percentile point).

Questions

(a) Predict how each cohort’s mean daily shares will evolve over the next 14 days and explain the roles of regression to the mean vs genuine behavioral differences.

(b) Which cohort should exhibit larger day-to-day variance and why?

(c) Describe how weekly seasonality (e.g., weekends) will appear in the cohort time series and how you would adjust for it.

(d) Outline an analysis to test whether quantiles (e.g., p50, p95) are temporally stable for this metric.

Solution

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