Calculate Particle Survival Probability After Time t
Radioactive-Decay Style Probability
Context
You have 100 identical, independent particles. Each particle's lifetime is exponentially distributed with rate parameter λ corresponding to a known half-life H. For an exponential lifetime, the survival function is:
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P(T > t) = e^{-λ t}, where λ = (ln 2) / H.
Task
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Derive the probability that exactly k particles (out of 100) remain undecayed after time t.
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Derive the probability that at least one particle remains undecayed after time t.
Assumptions
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Particles decay independently.
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All particles share the same half-life H (i.e., the same exponential rate λ).
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Time t ≥ 0 and k ∈ {0, 1, ..., 100}.
Constraints & Assumptions
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Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
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If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
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Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
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Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
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Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
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Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.
What a Strong Answer Covers
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A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
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A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
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Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
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Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.
Follow-up Questions
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How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
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Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
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What is the most likely source of estimation error?