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Compute and interpret quantile loss vs RMSE

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates competency in probabilistic forecasting evaluation, including understanding of quantile (pinball) loss versus point-error metrics like RMSE/MAE, calibration and empirical coverage of prediction intervals, and decision-making under asymmetric costs.

  • medium
  • Amazon
  • Statistics & Math
  • Data Scientist

Compute and interpret quantile loss vs RMSE

Company: Amazon

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Technical Screen

Define the quantile (pinball) loss L_q(y, ŷ) for quantile q and explain how it evaluates probabilistic forecasts differently from RMSE/MAE. Given observations y = [100, 120, 90] and predicted 90th-percentile forecasts ŷ_q = [110, 115, 95] at q = 0.9, compute the average pinball loss. Then compute the RMSE for median forecasts ŷ_0.5 = [102, 118, 93]. Under asymmetric underprediction costs, decide which model you would prefer and justify. Finally, discuss methods to assess calibration and empirical coverage of 80% and 90% intervals.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates competency in probabilistic forecasting evaluation, including understanding of quantile (pinball) loss versus point-error metrics like RMSE/MAE, calibration and empirical coverage of prediction intervals, and decision-making under asymmetric costs.

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Amazon
Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
Data Scientist
Technical Screen
Statistics & Math
7
0
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Quantile (Pinball) Loss vs RMSE/MAE; Computations and Calibration

You are evaluating probabilistic forecasts for a time series/ML regression task. You have both point forecasts (e.g., median) and quantile forecasts (e.g., 90th percentile) produced out-of-sample.

Tasks

  1. Define the quantile (pinball) loss L_q(y, ŷ) for a quantile q and explain how it evaluates probabilistic forecasts differently from RMSE/MAE.
  2. Given observations y = [100, 120, 90] and predicted 90th-percentile forecasts at q = 0.9, ŷ_q = [110, 115, 95], compute the average pinball loss.
  3. Given median forecasts ŷ_0.5 = [102, 118, 93], compute the RMSE.
  4. If underprediction is more costly than overprediction (asymmetric costs), decide which model you would prefer and justify.
  5. Describe methods to assess calibration and empirical coverage of 80% and 90% prediction intervals.

Solution

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