Compute Markov steady state and expectations
Probability and Game Theory: Three Sub-questions
Context: The exact transition matrix P (for Q1) and the 2×2 payoff matrix (for Q3) are not provided. Below, you will (a) solve generically in symbolic form, and (b) see a small numeric example to illustrate the procedure.
-
Finite-state Markov chain
-
Given a finite-state, irreducible, aperiodic Markov chain with transition matrix P, compute its stationary distribution π by solving πP = π with ∑ᵢ πᵢ = 1. Explain why the solution is unique.
-
Expectations from first principles
-
Let X ~ Exponential(λ) and N ~ Poisson(λ) with λ > 0. Derive E[X] and E[N] from first principles (integration/summation), showing intermediate steps.
-
2×2 zero-sum game
-
For a 2×2 zero-sum game with Player A’s payoff matrix
[ [a, b], [c, d] ],
find the mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium. Report the probability each player assigns to their first action (row 1 for A, column 1 for B), and justify the equilibrium with probability calculations.
Constraints & Assumptions
-
Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
-
If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
-
Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
-
Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
-
Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
-
Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.
What a Strong Answer Covers
-
A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
-
A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
-
Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
-
Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.
Follow-up Questions
-
How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
-
Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
-
What is the most likely source of estimation error?