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Compute Poisson supply–demand match probability

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates understanding of probability distributions and stochastic modeling—specifically Poisson processes, the Skellam distribution for differences, expectation of minima, and probabilistic capacity planning within the Statistics & Math domain.

  • Medium
  • Lyft
  • Statistics & Math
  • Data Scientist

Compute Poisson supply–demand match probability

Company: Lyft

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: Medium

Interview Round: Onsite

In a city-day of a two-sided marketplace, customer demand D ~ Poisson(8) and supplier capacity S ~ Poisson(6), assumed independent. (a) Compute P(S >= D). Express it exactly using the Skellam distribution for (S − D) and provide a numerical approximation to 3 decimals. (b) Derive E[min(S, D)] and the expected fill rate E[min(S, D)] / E[D]. You may use identities involving E[|S − D|] if helpful, or propose a simulation strategy with error bounds. (c) On weekends, demand rises to D ~ Poisson(9). By how much must capacity increase (i.e., find the smallest nonnegative δ such that S' ~ Poisson(6 + δ)) to achieve P(S' >= D) ≥ 0.90? Provide the smallest integer δ that satisfies the constraint, and justify your method (closed-form, normal/Skellam approximation, or simulation with confidence).

Quick Answer: This question evaluates understanding of probability distributions and stochastic modeling—specifically Poisson processes, the Skellam distribution for differences, expectation of minima, and probabilistic capacity planning within the Statistics & Math domain.

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Lyft
Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
Data Scientist
Onsite
Statistics & Math
5
0

In a city-day of a two-sided marketplace, customer demand D ~ Poisson(8) and supplier capacity S ~ Poisson(6), assumed independent. (a) Compute P(S >= D). Express it exactly using the Skellam distribution for (S − D) and provide a numerical approximation to 3 decimals. (b) Derive E[min(S, D)] and the expected fill rate E[min(S, D)] / E[D]. You may use identities involving E[|S − D|] if helpful, or propose a simulation strategy with error bounds. (c) On weekends, demand rises to D ~ Poisson(9). By how much must capacity increase (i.e., find the smallest nonnegative δ such that S' ~ Poisson(6 + δ)) to achieve P(S' >= D) ≥ 0.90? Provide the smallest integer δ that satisfies the constraint, and justify your method (closed-form, normal/Skellam approximation, or simulation with confidence).

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