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Compute probabilities and expectations in random processes

Last updated: May 10, 2026

Quick Overview

This set of probability and expectation questions evaluates probabilistic reasoning, combinatorial counting, stochastic process intuition, and quantitative expectation calculation skills relevant to Data Scientist roles and the Statistics & Math domain.

  • easy
  • Optiver
  • Statistics & Math
  • Data Scientist

Compute probabilities and expectations in random processes

Company: Optiver

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: easy

Interview Round: Take-home Project

You are asked to solve the following probability/expectation questions. Unless stated otherwise, assume all random choices are **uniform** and **independent**. 1. **Distinct digits**: Choose an integer uniformly at random from **1 to 10,000** (inclusive). What is the probability that **all digits in its decimal representation are distinct** (no repeated digit)? 2. **Stop when > 4**: Roll a fair six-sided die repeatedly until you roll a value **greater than 4** (i.e., 5 or 6). What is the **expected sum** of all rolls? 3. **3-card rank product**: From a standard 52-card deck, draw 3 cards uniformly without replacement. Map ranks as **A=1, 2–10 as themselves, J=11, Q=12, K=13**. What is the **expected value of the product** of the three ranks? 4. **Cancel H/T pairs**: Toss **100 fair coins**. Pairwise remove one Head and one Tail repeatedly (i.e., cancel H against T one-for-one). Let the number of coins left be the number of unmatched flips. What is the **expected remaining number of coins**? 5. **Stop on two identical in a row (sum)**: Roll a fair die until you first see **two consecutive rolls equal** (e.g., 2 then 2). What is the **expected sum** of all rolls? 6. **Run of 3 identical in 8 flips**: Toss a fair coin **8 times** (sequence order matters). What is the probability that the sequence contains **at least one run of 3 consecutive identical outcomes** (HHH or TTT anywhere)? 7. **1D random walk with die-based steps**: Start at position 0. Each step, roll a die: - If the roll is 1,2,3: move **right** by that many units. - If the roll is 4,5,6: move **left** by (roll − 3) units (so steps are −1,−2,−3). What is the **expected number of steps** until your distance from the origin is at least 10 (i.e., |position| ≥ 10)? 8. **Two 3-digit numbers difference is two-digit**: Pick two integers independently and uniformly from **100 to 999**. What is the probability that their **absolute difference** is a **two-digit number** (i.e., between 10 and 99 inclusive)? 9. **Two particles on an octagon**: On a cycle graph with 8 vertices (an octagon), place two particles at opposite vertices (distance 4 along the cycle). Each second, independently for each particle, flip a fair coin to decide whether it moves one step **clockwise** or **counterclockwise**. What is the **expected number of seconds** until they occupy the same vertex? 10. **Per-face running sums to 100**: Roll a fair die repeatedly. Maintain, for each face i∈{1,…,6}, a running sum S_i equal to the sum of all i’s rolled (equivalently S_i = i × count_i). Stop as soon as **any** S_i reaches **at least 100**. At that stopping time, what is the **expected number of even rolls** (2,4,6) observed? 11. **13 cards with no aces**: Draw 13 cards uniformly without replacement from a standard 52-card deck. What is the probability that the hand contains **no aces**? 12. **2D walk to boundary of 10×10 grid**: A particle starts at the center of a **10×10 grid** (assume the natural discrete model where interior states form a 10×10 set and boundary states are the outer ring). Each second, flip two fair coins: - HH: move North 1 - TT: move South 1 - HT: move West 1 - TH: move East 1 What is the **expected time** to hit the boundary? 13. **Expectation of 2^(sum of 3 dice)**: Roll 3 fair dice. Compute \(\mathbb{E}[2^{X_1+X_2+X_3}]\). 14. **Stop on two identical in a row (product)**: Roll a fair die until you first see two consecutive equal results. What is the **expected product** of all rolls? 15. **Bankruptcy probability in 10 rolls**: Start with $10. Roll a fair die exactly 10 times. If the roll is even, **add** the face value to your money; if odd, **subtract** the face value. What is the probability you go **bankrupt at any time** during the 10 rolls (money ≤ 0 at some step)? 16. **No overlap in two length-3 samples (1..10)**: You and a friend each independently draw 3 numbers from {1,…,10} **with replacement**. What is the probability that **none** of your numbers appears in your friend’s three draws? 17. **Last die is 2 when exceeding 100**: Roll a fair die repeatedly until the running total sum first **exceeds 100**. What is the probability that the **last roll** is exactly 2?

Quick Answer: This set of probability and expectation questions evaluates probabilistic reasoning, combinatorial counting, stochastic process intuition, and quantitative expectation calculation skills relevant to Data Scientist roles and the Statistics & Math domain.

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Optiver logo
Optiver
Nov 19, 2025, 12:00 AM
Data Scientist
Take-home Project
Statistics & Math
10
0

You are asked to solve the following probability/expectation questions. Unless stated otherwise, assume all random choices are uniform and independent.

  1. Distinct digits : Choose an integer uniformly at random from 1 to 10,000 (inclusive). What is the probability that all digits in its decimal representation are distinct (no repeated digit)?
  2. Stop when > 4 : Roll a fair six-sided die repeatedly until you roll a value greater than 4 (i.e., 5 or 6). What is the expected sum of all rolls?
  3. 3-card rank product : From a standard 52-card deck, draw 3 cards uniformly without replacement. Map ranks as A=1, 2–10 as themselves, J=11, Q=12, K=13 . What is the expected value of the product of the three ranks?
  4. Cancel H/T pairs : Toss 100 fair coins . Pairwise remove one Head and one Tail repeatedly (i.e., cancel H against T one-for-one). Let the number of coins left be the number of unmatched flips. What is the expected remaining number of coins ?
  5. Stop on two identical in a row (sum) : Roll a fair die until you first see two consecutive rolls equal (e.g., 2 then 2). What is the expected sum of all rolls?
  6. Run of 3 identical in 8 flips : Toss a fair coin 8 times (sequence order matters). What is the probability that the sequence contains at least one run of 3 consecutive identical outcomes (HHH or TTT anywhere)?
  7. 1D random walk with die-based steps : Start at position 0. Each step, roll a die:
    • If the roll is 1,2,3: move right by that many units.
    • If the roll is 4,5,6: move left by (roll − 3) units (so steps are −1,−2,−3). What is the expected number of steps until your distance from the origin is at least 10 (i.e., |position| ≥ 10)?
  8. Two 3-digit numbers difference is two-digit : Pick two integers independently and uniformly from 100 to 999 . What is the probability that their absolute difference is a two-digit number (i.e., between 10 and 99 inclusive)?
  9. Two particles on an octagon : On a cycle graph with 8 vertices (an octagon), place two particles at opposite vertices (distance 4 along the cycle). Each second, independently for each particle, flip a fair coin to decide whether it moves one step clockwise or counterclockwise . What is the expected number of seconds until they occupy the same vertex?
  10. Per-face running sums to 100 : Roll a fair die repeatedly. Maintain, for each face i∈{1,…,6}, a running sum S_i equal to the sum of all i’s rolled (equivalently S_i = i × count_i). Stop as soon as any S_i reaches at least 100 . At that stopping time, what is the expected number of even rolls (2,4,6) observed?
  11. 13 cards with no aces : Draw 13 cards uniformly without replacement from a standard 52-card deck. What is the probability that the hand contains no aces ?
  12. 2D walk to boundary of 10×10 grid : A particle starts at the center of a 10×10 grid (assume the natural discrete model where interior states form a 10×10 set and boundary states are the outer ring). Each second, flip two fair coins:
  • HH: move North 1
  • TT: move South 1
  • HT: move West 1
  • TH: move East 1 What is the expected time to hit the boundary?
  1. Expectation of 2^(sum of 3 dice) : Roll 3 fair dice. Compute E[2X1+X2+X3]\mathbb{E}[2^{X_1+X_2+X_3}]E[2X1​+X2​+X3​] .
  2. Stop on two identical in a row (product) : Roll a fair die until you first see two consecutive equal results. What is the expected product of all rolls?
  3. Bankruptcy probability in 10 rolls : Start with $10. Roll a fair die exactly 10 times. If the roll is even, add the face value to your money; if odd, subtract the face value. What is the probability you go bankrupt at any time during the 10 rolls (money ≤ 0 at some step)?
  4. No overlap in two length-3 samples (1..10) : You and a friend each independently draw 3 numbers from {1,…,10} with replacement . What is the probability that none of your numbers appears in your friend’s three draws?
  5. Last die is 2 when exceeding 100 : Roll a fair die repeatedly until the running total sum first exceeds 100 . What is the probability that the last roll is exactly 2?

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