Compute variance of trading profits
Symmetric Random Walk Trading Strategy: Profit Variance and Expectation
Setup
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Let S_t be a simple symmetric random walk with S_0 = 0 and increments X_t = S_t − S_{t−1} taking values ±1 with equal probability, independent across t.
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Time is discrete: t = 1, 2, ..., T.
Trading Rule
At each time t (after observing the move from t−1 to t):
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If X_t = +1, buy 1 share.
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If X_t = −1, short 1 share.
You accumulate all positions and mark them to market at the terminal time T.
Tasks
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Derive a closed form for the cumulative profit at time T and compute its variance.
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What is the expected profit? Explain.
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How do these results extend if S_t is replaced by continuous-time standard Brownian motion B_t?
Constraints & Assumptions
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Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
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If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
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Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
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Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
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Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
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Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.
What a Strong Answer Covers
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A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
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A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
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Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
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Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.
Follow-up Questions
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How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
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Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
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What is the most likely source of estimation error?