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Compute wallet-link probabilities and conditionals

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates understanding of Bernoulli trials, binomial probabilities, expectation, conditional probabilities, and dependence bounds (Fréchet bounds) within the domain of probability theory and statistics.

  • medium
  • Coinbase
  • Statistics & Math
  • Data Scientist

Compute wallet-link probabilities and conditionals

Company: Coinbase

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Technical Screen

Assume independent users link a wallet with probability p. 1) For n users, derive P(at least one links) and P(exactly k link). Provide closed forms and edge cases (p=0, p=1, large n, small p Poisson approximation). 2) Evaluate numerically for p=0.30 and n=5: P(at least one), P(exactly 2), and the expected number of links. 3) For two specific users A and B with independent probabilities p_A=0.40 and p_B=0.60, compute: - P(A ∪ B), P(A ∩ B), and P(A ∩ B | A ∪ B). 4) If independence is not assumed but you are told P(A ∪ B)=0.70 with marginals p_A=0.40, p_B=0.60, give the feasible range for P(A ∩ B) (Fréchet bounds) and the corresponding range for P(A ∩ B | A ∪ B). Explain when each boundary is attained and what dependence structure it implies.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates understanding of Bernoulli trials, binomial probabilities, expectation, conditional probabilities, and dependence bounds (Fréchet bounds) within the domain of probability theory and statistics.

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Coinbase
Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
Data Scientist
Technical Screen
Statistics & Math
2
0

Wallet-Linking Probability Exercises

Context: Each user links a wallet independently with probability p. Treat each user as a Bernoulli trial with success = "links a wallet."

Tasks

  1. For n users with identical independent probability p:
    • Derive P(at least one links) and P(exactly k link).
    • Provide closed forms and discuss edge cases: p = 0, p = 1, large n, and the small-p Poisson approximation.
  2. Evaluate numerically for p = 0.30 and n = 5:
    • P(at least one)
    • P(exactly 2)
    • Expected number of links
  3. For two specific users A and B with independent probabilities p_A = 0.40 and p_B = 0.60, compute:
    • P(A ∪ B)
    • P(A ∩ B)
    • P(A ∩ B | A ∪ B)
  4. Without assuming independence but given P(A ∪ B) = 0.70 with marginals p_A = 0.40 and p_B = 0.60:
    • State the feasible range for P(A ∩ B) using Fréchet bounds and the corresponding range for P(A ∩ B | A ∪ B).
    • Explain when each boundary is attained and what dependence structure it implies.

Solution

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