TikTok Time: Subgroup Increases vs Overall Average (Simpson's Paradox)
You are analyzing average daily time spent on TikTok by gender (male, female) across two periods (baseline t0 and follow-up t1). For each gender, the within-group average time increases from t0 to t1.
Answer the following:
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Formal statement and proof or counterexample
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State whether the overall average must increase when each subgroup's average increases.
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Provide either a proof or a concrete counterexample (Simpson's paradox) with numbers.
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Necessary and sufficient conditions
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Express conditions, in terms of subgroup means and population weights, under which the overall average is guaranteed to increase.
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Impact of composition shifts
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Explain how changes in group shares (e.g., male share changing) affect the conclusion.
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Diagnostic on real data
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Describe a diagnostic you would run on real data to avoid incorrect inferences caused by composition changes.