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Derive paying users over time with churn

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates the ability to model user conversion and churn with discrete-time recurrence relations, derive closed-form expressions for payers over time, and analyze steady-state and stability conditions.

  • medium
  • Uber
  • Statistics & Math
  • Data Scientist

Derive paying users over time with churn

Company: Uber

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Onsite

Leaky-bucket model. Each month t: N new users start a free trial; a% convert to paid at month-end; b% of existing (start-of-month) paying users churn at month-end. Let P_t be paying users at end of month t with P_0 given. (i) Derive P_1, P_10, and a closed-form P_M in terms of P_0, N, a, b. (ii) Find the steady state P* and the condition for convergence/stability. (iii) Re-derive if churn also applies to same-month converters (i.e., churn applied to all payers at month-end). (iv) If N, a, b vary by month, write the general recurrence and state when P_M has a closed form.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates the ability to model user conversion and churn with discrete-time recurrence relations, derive closed-form expressions for payers over time, and analyze steady-state and stability conditions.

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Uber
Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
Data Scientist
Onsite
Statistics & Math
4
0
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Leaky-Bucket Model of Paying Users

Context

  • Time is discrete by month t = 1, 2, ...
  • Each month t:
    • N new users start a free trial.
    • a (fraction, 0 ≤ a ≤ 1) convert to paid at month-end.
    • b (fraction, 0 ≤ b ≤ 1) of existing start-of-month paying users churn at month-end.
  • Let P_t be the number of paying users at the end of month t. P_0 is given.

Tasks

(i) Derive P_1, P_10, and a closed-form P_M in terms of P_0, N, a, b (assume churn does not apply to the same-month converters).

(ii) Find the steady state P* and the condition for convergence/stability.

(iii) Re-derive if churn also applies to same-month converters (i.e., churn is applied to all payers at month-end).

(iv) If N, a, b vary by month, write the general recurrence and state when P_M has a closed form.

Solution

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