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Design a flu-shot A/B/n campaign experiment

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates a data scientist's competency in experimental design, causal inference, sample-size and power calculations, compliance-adjusted effect estimation, attribution instrumentation, and reporting for multi-channel marketing experiments.

  • hard
  • CVS Health
  • Analytics & Experimentation
  • Data Scientist

Design a flu-shot A/B/n campaign experiment

Company: CVS Health

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Analytics & Experimentation

Difficulty: hard

Interview Round: Technical Screen

You are the analytics owner for a Fall 2025 pharmacy campaign to increase in-store flu vaccinations using SMS and Email. Design and evaluate the experiment end-to-end. Context - Target customers: adults with pharmacy loyalty IDs, across CA/NY/TX. Outcome = received flu shot at your pharmacies within Sept–Nov 2025. - Channels: SMS, Email; both have per-send costs (SMS=$0.02, Email=$0.001). Deliverability varies (SMS 92%, Email 98%). Tasks 1) Experimental design - Choose between A/B (one channel vs control) or 2x2 factorial (SMS on/off x Email on/off). Justify considering potential interaction, interference, and send-cost constraints. - Define eligibility, exclusion (e.g., opt-outs, prior vaccination), randomization unit (person vs household), and stratification variables (age band, state, past visits). - Specify primary metric (absolute lift in vaccination rate) and guardrail metrics (opt-outs, complaints, no-show appointments, capacity). 2) Sample size and power (show formulas and numeric results) - Baseline vaccination rate assumed 8.0%; minimum detectable effect (MDE) 1.5 percentage points; two-sided alpha=0.05, power=0.80. Compute per-arm sample size ignoring clustering, then discuss inflation for household clustering with ICC=0.01 and average household size=1.3. 3) Compliance and analysis - Only a fraction of treated are actually exposed (deliverability + opens). Define Intention-To-Treat (ITT) estimator and compute Treatment-On-The-Treated (TOT) using deliverability as an instrument. Show the relationship TOT ≈ ITT / compliance, and state assumptions. 4) Attribution and measurement - Customers can receive both channels in a factorial design. Propose instrumentation (unique links/codes, message timestamps) and analysis to attribute incremental impact to each channel (e.g., factorial contrasts, hierarchical models). Explain why self-reported "came because of SMS/Email" is biased and how to use it, if at all. 5) Edge case - In one market, 100 vaccinated customers from the SMS arm, but only 50 report they came because of a message. With control vaccination rate = 7.5% and SMS-arm rate = 9.0%, compute ITT lift and discuss why self-reports do not change the causal estimate. What operational changes would you test next if the lift is below the 1.5pp target? 6) Reporting - Define how you would monitor during-rollout (sequential testing controls), finalize results (confidence intervals, CUPED if pre-period data exist), and recommend a scaled policy under a fixed budget.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates a data scientist's competency in experimental design, causal inference, sample-size and power calculations, compliance-adjusted effect estimation, attribution instrumentation, and reporting for multi-channel marketing experiments.

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CVS Health logo
CVS Health
Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
Data Scientist
Technical Screen
Analytics & Experimentation
2
0

Fall 2025 Flu Vaccination Uplift Experiment — Design and Evaluation

Context (assume a large US pharmacy with loyalty IDs)

  • Audience: Adults with loyalty IDs in CA, NY, TX.
  • Outcome window: Vaccinated in-store Sept–Nov 2025.
  • Channels: SMS and Email. Per-send costs: SMS = 0.02,Email=0.02, Email = 0.02,Email= 0.001.
  • Deliverability: SMS 92%, Email 98%.

Tasks

  1. Experimental design
    • Choose between A/B (one channel vs. control) or a 2×2 factorial (SMS on/off × Email on/off). Justify considering potential channel interaction, household interference, and send-cost constraints.
    • Define eligibility and exclusions (e.g., opt-outs, no valid contact, prior 2025 vaccination), the randomization unit (person vs. household), and stratification variables (e.g., age band, state, past pharmacy visits, contact availability).
    • Specify the primary metric (absolute lift in vaccination rate) and guardrail metrics (opt-outs/unsubscribes, spam complaints, no-show rate for appointments, store capacity).
  2. Sample size and power (show formulas and numeric results)
    • Baseline vaccination rate p0 = 8.0%.
    • Minimum detectable effect (MDE) = 1.5 percentage points (pp).
    • Two-sided α = 0.05, power = 0.80.
    • Compute per-arm sample size ignoring clustering. Then discuss inflation for household clustering with ICC = 0.01 and average household size = 1.3.
  3. Compliance and analysis
    • Only a fraction of treated customers are actually exposed (deliverability + opens). Define the Intention-To-Treat (ITT) estimator and compute the Treatment-On-The-Treated (TOT) using deliverability as an instrument. Show that TOT ≈ ITT / compliance and state required assumptions.
  4. Attribution and measurement
    • Customers can receive both channels in a factorial design. Propose instrumentation (unique links/codes, timestamps) and an analysis plan to attribute incremental impact to each channel (e.g., factorial contrasts, regression with interactions, hierarchical models). Explain why self-reported "came because of SMS/Email" is biased and how, if at all, it should be used.
  5. Edge case
    • In one market, 100 vaccinated customers from the SMS arm, but only 50 say they came because of a message. With control vaccination rate = 7.5% and SMS-arm rate = 9.0%, compute the ITT lift and discuss why self-reports do not change the causal estimate. If the lift is below the 1.5 pp target, what operational changes would you test next?
  6. Reporting
    • Describe how you would monitor during rollout (sequential testing controls), finalize results (confidence intervals, CUPED if pre-period data exist), and recommend a scaled policy under a fixed budget.

Solution

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