Design ETA prediction for Uber rides

Quick Overview

This question evaluates competency in end-to-end machine learning system design for real-time spatiotemporal ETA prediction, encompassing feature engineering from heterogeneous data sources, uncertainty quantification, model selection, and production serving and monitoring.

Design ETA prediction for Uber rides

Company: Uber

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Machine Learning

Difficulty: hard

Interview Round: Technical Screen

Design an end‑to‑end system to predict pickup and drop‑off ETAs at request time. Specify: (1) data sources/features (road graph and segment metadata, GPS traces, historical segment speeds, live traffic incidents/speeds, weather, events, supply‑demand density, driver behavioral features, device/network latency, road closures); (2) modeling approaches comparing a map‑matching + dynamic shortest‑path baseline to gradient‑boosted trees and a spatiotemporal deep model (sequence/graph), and how you’ll represent routes and capture heteroskedasticity; (3) uncertainty outputs and calibration (e.g., quantile regression, conformal prediction) with 50/90% intervals; (4) training/serving architecture (feature store, streaming updates, drift detection, online refresh cadence, canary models, latency/availability SLAs); (5) leakage/censoring controls (e.g., excluding post‑dispatch signals, handling reroutes, cancellations) and strategies for cold‑start regions and rare events; (6) offline evaluation metrics (MAE/MAPE, P50/P90 error, coverage of 90% intervals, CRPS) with stratified slices by city, time‑of‑day, weather, and surge; and (7) online evaluation via A/B test with guardrails (cancellation rate, pickup wait, driver idle time, reliability of intervals) and rollout criteria. Conclude with trade‑offs and select an MVP model for initial deployment.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates competency in end-to-end machine learning system design for real-time spatiotemporal ETA prediction, encompassing feature engineering from heterogeneous data sources, uncertainty quantification, model selection, and production serving and monitoring.

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Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
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System Design: Real‑Time Pickup and Drop‑off ETA Prediction

Context: You’re designing an end‑to‑end system that predicts pickup and drop‑off ETAs at trip request time for a large ride‑hailing marketplace. At request time, the driver is not yet assigned; predictions must serve within tight latency and remain reliable during traffic spikes, incidents, and rare events.

Specify the following:

  1. Data Sources and Features
    • Road graph and segment metadata
    • GPS traces and map‑matched trips
    • Historical segment speeds and travel times (time‑of‑day/weekday seasonality)
    • Live traffic incidents and real‑time speeds
    • Weather and major events
    • Supply‑demand density and marketplace state
    • Driver behavioral features (e.g., acceptance, cruising patterns)
    • Device/network latency and dispatch latency
    • Road closures, construction, and routing constraints
  2. Modeling Approaches
    • Baseline: map‑matching + dynamic shortest‑path
    • Gradient‑boosted trees
    • Spatiotemporal deep model (sequence/graph)
    • How you represent routes for each model
    • How you capture heteroskedasticity (variance changing with context)
  3. Uncertainty and Calibration
    • Produce 50% and 90% prediction intervals
    • Methods: quantile regression, conformal prediction
    • Calibration strategy
  4. Training and Serving Architecture
    • Feature store (offline/online parity)
    • Streaming updates for traffic and incidents
    • Drift detection and monitoring
    • Online refresh cadence and deployment (canary, blue/green)
    • Latency and availability SLAs
  5. Leakage and Censoring Controls
    • Exclude post‑dispatch signals
    • Handling reroutes and cancellations
    • Cold‑start regions and rare events strategies
  6. Offline Evaluation
    • Metrics: MAE/MAPE, P50/P90 error, coverage of 90% intervals, CRPS
    • Stratified slices by city, time‑of‑day, weather, and surge
    • Proper temporal/geographical holdout to avoid leakage
  7. Online Evaluation and Rollout
    • A/B test with guardrails: cancellation rate, pickup wait, driver idle time, reliability of intervals
    • Rollout criteria and monitoring plan

Conclude with trade‑offs and select an MVP model for initial deployment.

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