Evaluate ROI and payback for renewables

Quick Overview

This question evaluates competency in financial modeling and quantitative analysis for utility-scale renewable projects, testing skills in ROI and payback calculation, unit economics, capacity constraint analysis, sensitivity analysis, and scenario comparison.

Evaluate ROI and payback for renewables

Company: Capital One

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Technical Screen

You’re advising NorthGrid Energy on a utility-scale renewables investment with the following Year-1 economics unless noted: upfront capex = $50,000,000; fixed O&M = $2,000,000/year; variable cost = $28/MWh; contracted price (PPA) = $40/MWh for the first 5 years; maximum physical capacity = 800,000 MWh/year. Define Year-1 ROI as (operating profit in Year 1) / (initial capex). Ignore taxes, depreciation, financing costs, and working capital. Answer all parts, showing formulas and numeric steps: 1) What quantitative factors would you prioritize before modeling (at least 6), and for each state directionality (how an increase affects ROI) and how you would measure/validate it? 2) Compute the minimum annual MWh required in Year 1 to achieve a 10% ROI. If the requirement exceeds capacity, quantify the shortfall in MWh. 3) Suppose regulation caps Year-1 output at 500,000 MWh. a) Holding costs constant, what PPA price (to the nearest cent) is needed to still reach a 10% ROI? b) Holding price at $40/MWh, what maximum variable cost per MWh (to the nearest cent) would still yield a 10% ROI? 4) Compare two mutually exclusive build options with independent economics: Option A (Solar): capex $25,000,000; fixed O&M $2,000,000/year; variable cost $0/MWh; expected output 300,000 MWh/year at $40/MWh. Option B (Biomass): capex $25,000,000; fixed O&M $1,000,000/year; variable cost $30/MWh; expected output 1,100,000 MWh/year at $40/MWh. For each option, compute: a) Year-1 operating profit, b) simple payback period (years), and c) unit margin ($/MWh). 5) Which option would you recommend and why? Justify using unit economics, sensitivity to price/cost shocks, capacity risk, and operational complexity. 6) Deliver a 30-second executive summary (≤90 words) stating the recommendation, key assumptions, and the single largest risk.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates competency in financial modeling and quantitative analysis for utility-scale renewable projects, testing skills in ROI and payback calculation, unit economics, capacity constraint analysis, sensitivity analysis, and scenario comparison.

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Oct 13, 2025, 9:49 PM
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You’re advising NorthGrid Energy on a utility-scale renewables investment with the following Year-1 economics unless noted: upfront capex = 50,000,000; fixed O&M = 2,000,000/year; variable cost = 28/MWh;contractedprice(PPA)=28/MWh; contracted price (PPA) = 40/MWh for the first 5 years; maximum physical capacity = 800,000 MWh/year. Define Year-1 ROI as (operating profit in Year 1) / (initial capex). Ignore taxes, depreciation, financing costs, and working capital. Answer all parts, showing formulas and numeric steps: 1) What quantitative factors would you prioritize before modeling (at least 6), and for each state directionality (how an increase affects ROI) and how you would measure/validate it? 2) Compute the minimum annual MWh required in Year 1 to achieve a 10% ROI. If the requirement exceeds capacity, quantify the shortfall in MWh. 3) Suppose regulation caps Year-1 output at 500,000 MWh. a) Holding costs constant, what PPA price (to the nearest cent) is needed to still reach a 10% ROI? b) Holding price at 40/MWh,whatmaximumvariablecostperMWh(tothenearestcent)wouldstillyielda1040/MWh, what maximum variable cost per MWh (to the nearest cent) would still yield a 10% ROI? 4) Compare two mutually exclusive build options with independent economics: Option A (Solar): capex 25,000,000; fixed O&M 2,000,000/year;variablecost2,000,000/year; variable cost 0/MWh; expected output 300,000 MWh/year at 40/MWh.OptionB(Biomass):capex40/MWh. Option B (Biomass): capex 25,000,000; fixed O&M 1,000,000/year;variablecost1,000,000/year; variable cost 30/MWh; expected output 1,100,000 MWh/year at 40/MWh.Foreachoption,compute:a)Year1operatingprofit,b)simplepaybackperiod(years),andc)unitmargin(40/MWh. For each option, compute: a) Year-1 operating profit, b) simple payback period (years), and c) unit margin (/MWh). 5) Which option would you recommend and why? Justify using unit economics, sensitivity to price/cost shocks, capacity risk, and operational complexity. 6) Deliver a 30-second executive summary (≤90 words) stating the recommendation, key assumptions, and the single largest risk.

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