Customer Churn Modeling: Preprocessing, Missingness, Outliers, and Evaluation
Context
You are building a binary churn model for a consumer subscription/financial product. Features include:
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Numeric spend: heavy right tail with ~2% extreme outliers.
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Count variables: many zeros.
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Categorical plan types (low to moderate cardinality).
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Missing data: a mix of MAR and MNAR (e.g., some high-spend users omit income).
Answer the following:
Tasks
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Propose end-to-end preprocessing pipelines for both:
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(A) Linear/logistic models, and
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(B) Tree ensembles (e.g., XGBoost/LightGBM/Random Forest),
covering imputation (median, KNN, MICE, model-based), missingness indicators, robust scaling, and outlier treatment (winsorization vs robust estimators vs isolation-based filters).
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Explain when each choice helps or hurts and why (e.g., winsorization in logistic vs tree splits; leakage risks in MICE/KNN; effects of scaling on KNN; when to avoid isolation forest).
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Describe how you would empirically test the pipeline’s impact on probability calibration and SHAP explanations without optimistic bias.
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If ~10% of records are MNAR on a key feature, what modeling and data-collection strategies would you use to mitigate bias?