How to analyze Simpson's paradox

Quick Overview

This question evaluates competency in causal reasoning, statistical inference, experimental design, and detection of Simpson's paradox within the Analytics & Experimentation domain.

How to analyze Simpson's paradox

Company: LinkedIn

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Analytics & Experimentation

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Technical Screen

A marketing team wants to evaluate a new email campaign. Two email versions, A and B, were tested over two weeks in two cities: San Francisco and New York. The overall pooled data suggests version A has a higher conversion rate than version B, but when you break the results down by city, and possibly by week, version B appears better in every subgroup. How would you determine whether the new email is actually better? In your answer, discuss: - what metric(s) you would define as primary and which guardrail metrics you would monitor, - how Simpson's paradox can arise in this setting, - what confounders or sources of imbalance you would check, - how you would re-analyze the existing data, - whether and how you can compute confidence intervals, and - how you would redesign the experiment if the original allocation across cities or time was imbalanced.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates competency in causal reasoning, statistical inference, experimental design, and detection of Simpson's paradox within the Analytics & Experimentation domain.

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Sep 5, 2025, 12:00 AM
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A marketing team wants to evaluate a new email campaign. Two email versions, A and B, were tested over two weeks in two cities: San Francisco and New York. The overall pooled data suggests version A has a higher conversion rate than version B, but when you break the results down by city, and possibly by week, version B appears better in every subgroup.

How would you determine whether the new email is actually better? In your answer, discuss:

  • what metric(s) you would define as primary and which guardrail metrics you would monitor,
  • how Simpson's paradox can arise in this setting,
  • what confounders or sources of imbalance you would check,
  • how you would re-analyze the existing data,
  • whether and how you can compute confidence intervals, and
  • how you would redesign the experiment if the original allocation across cities or time was imbalanced.
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