Feed-Ranking Tweaks: Interpret 95% CIs and Choose a Launch Candidate
Context
You ran online experiments for three feed-ranking tweaks. The primary metric is percent change in engagement vs. control (negative = worse). For each treatment, you have a 95% confidence interval (CI) for the treatment effect. Leadership wants a recommendation that weighs statistical significance and business risk tolerance ("business threshold" for acceptable short-term loss).
Assumption: Effects are percentage-point changes in engagement; 95% CIs are already adjusted for multiplicity/peeking where relevant.
Data
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Treatment A: −5% (95% CI: [−7.5%, −2.5%])
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Treatment B: −15% (95% CI: [−17%, −13%])
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Treatment C: −12% (95% CI: [−28%, −4%])
Task
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Interpret each CI (significance, magnitude, uncertainty).
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Assess risk vs. an acceptable business threshold for short-term engagement loss.
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Choose which (if any) to launch and justify the decision.