Maximize Probability of Drawing Two Red Balls
Optimize Two-Basket Allocation for Red-Red Draws
Setup
You have 100 red balls and 100 blue balls to distribute between two baskets, A and B. Then you will draw one ball from each basket (no replacement within a basket, but since only one draw is made per basket, replacement is irrelevant).
Task
How should you allocate the balls between the two baskets to maximize the probability that both drawn balls are red? Compute that maximum probability.
Notation Hint
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Let x = number of red balls in basket A.
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Let u = number of blue balls in basket A.
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Then basket B has (100 − x) red and (100 − u) blue.
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The goal is to maximize P(red from A) × P(red from B).
Constraints & Assumptions
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Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
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If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
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Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
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Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
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Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
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Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.
What a Strong Answer Covers
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A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
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A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
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Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
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Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.
Follow-up Questions
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How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
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Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
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What is the most likely source of estimation error?