Survival Modeling of Rider Abandonment During Pickup Waits
Context
You are modeling when a rider cancels (abandons) while waiting for pickup. Let time origin t = 0 be the ride request time. The event of interest is rider cancellation before pickup. If the rider is picked up before canceling, the observation is right-censored at pickup time.
Assume you have covariates including quoted ETA, surge multiplier, time-of-day, and location. Some covariates (e.g., quoted ETA, surge) may change over time.
Tasks
-
Define survival S(t) and hazard h(t) in this setting and relate them.
-
List key covariates and how to encode them (quoted ETA, surge multiplier, time-of-day, location).
-
Explain how to handle:
-
Right-censoring (completed rides/pickups)
-
Left-truncation (delayed entry, e.g., analysis begins at driver assignment)
-
Time-varying covariates
-
Specify and compare a Cox proportional-hazards (PH) model vs. a Weibull accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Interpret hazard ratios for the covariates.
-
Compute the median additional wait a rider will tolerate under median covariates, for both models.
-
Describe diagnostics for PH assumptions and how violations would change your specification.