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Use Bayes to interpret a broken radar alarm

Last updated: Mar 29, 2026

Quick Overview

This question evaluates Bayesian probabilistic reasoning, understanding of base rates, sensitivity/specificity, decision-theoretic trade-offs between false positives and misses, and practical competencies in model validation, metric selection, and handling data quality issues.

  • easy
  • Waymo
  • Analytics & Experimentation
  • Data Scientist

Use Bayes to interpret a broken radar alarm

Company: Waymo

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Analytics & Experimentation

Difficulty: easy

Interview Round: Onsite

A “radar” system (or anomaly alarm) is suspected to be unreliable. You are asked to interpret its alerts and recommend how to operate it. ### Given Define the event of interest as `E` (e.g., “real intrusion/real aircraft present”) and an alarm `A`. You are given (or can estimate from logs): - Base rate: \(P(E)\) (the event is rare) - Sensitivity/TPR: \(P(A\mid E)\) - False positive rate/FPR: \(P(A\mid \neg E)\) - (Optional) costs: cost of missing an event vs cost of investigating a false alarm ### Questions 1. When the system triggers an alarm, what is the probability the event is real? (Compute \(P(E\mid A)\).) 2. Explain why a high TPR can still result in many false alarms in rare-event settings. 3. If you can tune an alarm threshold, how would you choose it? Discuss **precision–recall tradeoffs** and incorporate business costs. 4. Propose a statistically sound way to validate whether the radar is “broken” compared with a baseline (e.g., last month’s model or another sensor): - What hypotheses would you test? - What metrics would you monitor (primary + guardrails)? - What data issues could bias your conclusion (label noise, delayed labels, non-stationarity)?

Quick Answer: This question evaluates Bayesian probabilistic reasoning, understanding of base rates, sensitivity/specificity, decision-theoretic trade-offs between false positives and misses, and practical competencies in model validation, metric selection, and handling data quality issues.

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Waymo
Jan 17, 2026, 12:00 AM
Data Scientist
Onsite
Analytics & Experimentation
10
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A “radar” system (or anomaly alarm) is suspected to be unreliable. You are asked to interpret its alerts and recommend how to operate it.

Given

Define the event of interest as E (e.g., “real intrusion/real aircraft present”) and an alarm A. You are given (or can estimate from logs):

  • Base rate: P(E)P(E)P(E) (the event is rare)
  • Sensitivity/TPR: P(A∣E)P(A\mid E)P(A∣E)
  • False positive rate/FPR: P(A∣¬E)P(A\mid \neg E)P(A∣¬E)
  • (Optional) costs: cost of missing an event vs cost of investigating a false alarm

Questions

  1. When the system triggers an alarm, what is the probability the event is real? (Compute P(E∣A)P(E\mid A)P(E∣A) .)
  2. Explain why a high TPR can still result in many false alarms in rare-event settings.
  3. If you can tune an alarm threshold, how would you choose it? Discuss precision–recall tradeoffs and incorporate business costs.
  4. Propose a statistically sound way to validate whether the radar is “broken” compared with a baseline (e.g., last month’s model or another sensor):
    • What hypotheses would you test?
    • What metrics would you monitor (primary + guardrails)?
    • What data issues could bias your conclusion (label noise, delayed labels, non-stationarity)?

Solution

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