We talked about research.
Explain why this approach would fail: collect bridges and their design drawings from Wikipedia. Train a CNN on these drawings to predict whether a bridge will collapse (or whether it will collapse within the first X years after being built). Then, starting from random noise, use gradient descent to "construct" a drawing plan that makes the model predict a 99.9% probability of "not collapsing."
The resulting drawing plan would just be random noise.
Explain why the prediction model would fail:
Missing other key features, like weather/environmental conditions, bridge load, year built, etc.
We also got into earthquakes and horses, not sure why — that guy was kind of out there.
Give a possible reason why the model might keep predicting that old bridges won't collapse:
The dataset has survivorship bias — older bridges still in use are more likely to show up on Wikipedia (collapsed ones don't).
Recency bias (not sure if that's exactly the right term) — recently collapsed newer bridges are also more likely to be included on Wikipedia.
Discussion
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