Cannibalization vs. Organic Growth Across Creation Sources
Scenario
Management observed strong revenue growth from one creation_source (a channel by which revenue‑generating units such as orders/ads/subscriptions are created). They want evidence on whether this growth is cannibalizing revenue from other sources versus reflecting net organic growth.
Assumptions (for clarity):
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creation_source identifies mutually exclusive channels (e.g., API, mobile, web, partner) for the creation of monetizable objects.
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Revenue can be measured over time (e.g., by week) and aggregated by unit (e.g., geo/market or user cohort) and source.
Question
Design an analysis to determine whether next year’s revenue increase for a specific creation_source (call it Source A) is offset by declines in other sources. Your approach should aim for causal evidence rather than correlations.
Consider methods such as:
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Randomized traffic re-allocation or holdouts
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Difference-in-differences with control groups
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Fixed-effects panel regressions and event studies
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Time-series regression/VAR
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Instrumental variables or synthetic control