Build a 2020 Market-Size Estimate for Autonomous Vehicles From First Principles

Estimate the size of the market for driverless cars in 2020. Explain how you define the market, lay out the structure of your estimate, label every assumption, and finish with a figure and how confident you are in it. ```hint Define before you multiply Before picking a starting number, decide what qualifies as a driverless car and who pays for one. Each choice points to a different base to build from. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Which geography: the United States or worldwide? - Should the market be measured in vehicles sold or in dollars, and if dollars, the full vehicle price or only what buyers pay for the self-driving capability? - Does "driverless" mean a car that needs no human driver at all, or does it also include cars sold with self-driving features that still require a supervising driver? - Do ride-hailing and delivery fleets count as buyers alongside individual car owners? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A clear definition of driverless and of the market measure (units or dollars), agreed before the arithmetic - The buyer segments identified, with the ones being sized and the ones excluded stated - A transparent chain from a base such as population, households or new-car sales to the 2020 figure, with labeled round assumptions - Arithmetic that keeps units and orders of magnitude straight and separates cars on the road from cars sold during the year - A sanity check, a final range, and how the answer shifts under the other definitions ### Follow-up Questions - Which assumption is hardest to defend, and what data would you use to tighten it? - How would rules that allow driverless operation in only some states or cities change your estimate? - How would you project this market five years beyond 2020?