Ad Insertion Statistics for Two Feed Strategies
You are comparing two ways of inserting ads into a 100-post feed.
-
Option A:
Each post independently becomes an ad with probability
p = 0.04
.
-
Option B:
Exactly 1 out of every 25 posts is an ad, so there are exactly 4 ads in 100 posts.
For Option B, if positions are not fixed, assume each 25-post block contains exactly one ad whose position is chosen uniformly at random and independently across blocks. If the positions are fixed, call out how that changes adjacency.
Constraints & Assumptions
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Use the stated 100-post feed and 4% ad probability.
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Define "more than twice the expected number" as strictly more than 8 ads.
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Define an adjacent ad pair as positions
i
and
i+1
both being ads.
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Explain both expected counts and user-experience risk from variance or long runs.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
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Are the exact ad positions fixed in Option B or random within each block?
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Are blocks independent?
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Do we care only about total ad count or also local clustering and long ad runs?
What a Strong Answer Covers
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Option A ad count is
Binomial(100, 0.04)
with expected value 4 and variance 3.84.
-
Option B has deterministic total count 4 and variance 0.
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Option A has a nonzero probability of more than 8 ads; Option B has probability 0.
-
Adjacent-pair expectation for Option A is approximately
(99) * p^2
.
-
For random-in-block Option B, adjacency can occur mainly across block boundaries; for fixed every-25th placement it can be eliminated.
-
Option A is more likely to create long runs because placements are independent and unbounded locally.
Follow-up Questions
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How would you compute the exact binomial tail for Option A?
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Which option creates a better user experience if users dislike ad clusters?
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How would you design a hybrid strategy that controls count and spacing?