Compute odds under time pressure

Quick Overview

This question evaluates probabilistic reasoning and combinatorial calculation skills, including conditional probability, distributional thinking and the ability to convert probabilities into odds.

Compute odds under time pressure

Company: Optiver

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Take-home Project

Answer a timed probability question: An urn contains r red, b blue, and g green balls (r,b,g ≥ 0, r+b+g ≥ 3). You draw 3 balls without replacement. Compute the probability that you draw at least two reds within 90 seconds, and present a fast mental-math method that scales to general parameters. Extend your solution to (i) drawing with replacement, (ii) conditional probability given that the first ball was green, and (iii) odds ratio form suitable for quick estimation.

Quick Answer: This question evaluates probabilistic reasoning and combinatorial calculation skills, including conditional probability, distributional thinking and the ability to convert probabilities into odds.

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Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 AM
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Timed Probability: At Least Two Reds in Three Draws

You have an urn with r red, b blue, and g green balls. Let N = r + b + g with r, b, g ≥ 0 and N ≥ 3. You draw 3 balls.

Tasks:

  1. Baseline (without replacement): Compute P(at least two reds).
  2. Fast mental-math method that scales to general r, b, g.
  3. Extensions: (i) Drawing with replacement. (ii) Conditional probability given that the first ball drawn was green. (iii) Express the answer in odds form, suitable for quick estimation.
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