Compute ruin probability with bold betting

Quick Overview

This question evaluates understanding of probability theory and stochastic processes, focusing on ruin probabilities under a bold betting strategy with state-dependent wagers.

Compute ruin probability with bold betting

Company: SIG (Susquehanna)

Role: Data Scientist

Category: Statistics & Math

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Online Assessment

You start with 3 tokens and aim to reach 5 tokens before running out. Each turn you bet as many tokens as possible but not more than needed to reach 5, and you win each bet independently with probability 3/5. What is the probability you reach 5 tokens before ruin?

Overview: This question evaluates understanding of probability theory and stochastic processes, focusing on ruin probabilities under a bold betting strategy with state-dependent wagers.

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SIG (Susquehanna)
Aug 11, 2025
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Probability of Reaching 5 Tokens Before Ruin

Setup

  • You start with 3 tokens, target is 5 tokens, and ruin is 0.
  • On each turn, you bet as many tokens as possible but not more than needed to reach 5. That is, if you have x tokens you bet b(x) = min(x, 5 − x).
  • Each bet is an independent Bernoulli trial: win with probability 3/5, lose with probability 2/5.

Question: What is the probability that you reach 5 tokens before hitting 0?

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