Airline Route Profitability Metric with Quality Guardrails

Context

You need a single, decomposable primary metric for airline route profitability that blends revenue and operating realities, and remains robust during irregular operations (delays, cancellations). The metric must roll up cleanly by route and month for a PowerDay-style business review. You also need 2–3 operational quality guardrails so the primary metric cannot be gamed at the expense of customers.

Available fields (by flight leg or aggregated to route–date):

• route_id, flight_date
• seats_sold, fare_usd, ancillaries_usd
• fuel_cost_usd, crew_cost_usd, airport_fees_usd
• block_minutes, delay_minutes, cancellations, refunds_usd, rebooking_cost_usd

Assume you can aggregate by route and calendar month.

Tasks

(a) Define:

1. One primary metric formula that incorporates both revenue and operations (e.g., Adjusted Route Profit per Block Minute). State all assumptions (e.g., how to allocate refunds and rebooking costs) and justify why the metric is business-sound and decomposable by route and month.
2. Two to three guardrails (e.g., cancellation rate, delay intensity), with precise formulas and interpretation.

(b) Validation plan:

• How to backtest against past route openings/closures.
• Sensitivity analyses to demand shocks and fuel spikes.
• Correlation checks with long-run cash contribution.

(c) Policy test design:

• Suppose management trials dynamic overbooking. Design an experiment or quasi-experiment to detect lift in your primary metric while controlling for seasonality, competitor moves, and weather. Specify unit of randomization, analysis approach, power analysis inputs, guardrails during the test, and how you will interpret heterogeneous effects across routes.