Normal and Bivariate Normal: PDFs/CDFs, MLEs, Conditioning, and Unbiased Variance
Setup
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Let X1, …, Xn be i.i.d. Normal(μ, σ²).
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Independently, let (X, Y) be a single draw from a bivariate Normal with means μX, μY, variances σX², σY², and correlation ρ.
Tasks
(a) Write the pdf and cdf of Normal(μ, σ²). Using them, express P(μ − σ ≤ X1 ≤ μ + σ) in terms of the standard Normal cdf Φ.
(b) Derive the MLEs:
(i) μ when σ² is known;
(ii) μ and σ² when both are unknown;
(iii) the MLE of μ when μ is constrained so that μ ≥ 0 (give the closed-form and explain what happens when the unconstrained MLE is negative).
(c) For the bivariate Normal (X, Y), derive the conditional distribution of X | Y = y: give its mean and variance, write the conditional pdf and cdf, and compute P(X > t | Y = y) in terms of Φ.
(d) Is the usual MLE of σ² unbiased? If not, provide an unbiased estimator for σ² and relate it to the MLE.