Design Experiment to Measure Airport Surge-Pricing Impact
Experiment Design: Causal Impact of Airport Surge-Pricing Push Notifications on Driver Supply
Context
You operate a two-sided ride-hailing marketplace. A new push notification is sent to eligible drivers when the airport is in surge, aiming to attract more drivers to the airport. Drivers within and around the airport can see and respond to the push at overlapping times, so interference (spillovers) between treated and untreated drivers is plausible.
Task
Design an experiment to measure whether the push notification causally increases driver supply at the airport while handling potential interference.
Please address:
-
Experimental design: randomization unit(s), holdouts, timing windows, and any clustering.
-
Primary and secondary success metrics to track.
-
How you will detect and account for spillovers on untreated drivers.
-
How you will identify causal impact in the presence of interference (e.g., geographic clustering, holdout zones, difference-in-differences, network interference adjustments).
Constraints & Assumptions
-
Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
-
If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
-
Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
-
Clarify the business objective, unit of analysis, time window, exposure definition, and primary metric.
-
State assumptions about instrumentation, randomization, sample size, and data quality.
-
Separate descriptive analysis from causal claims.
What a Strong Answer Covers
-
A metric framework with primary, guardrail, and diagnostic metrics.
-
A credible analysis or experiment design with clear assumptions and bias checks.
-
SQL/statistical logic for segmentation, variance, confidence, and data validation where relevant.
-
An actionable recommendation that explains trade-offs and next steps.
Follow-up Questions
-
What sanity checks would you run before trusting the result?
-
How would you handle novelty effects, seasonality, or selection bias?
-
What decision would you make if metrics disagree?