Determine Conditions for Multiplying Event Probabilities in Statistics
Scenario
You are modeling multiple, distinct risk events in Coinbase Wallet (e.g., E1, E2, …, En) and want the probability that all occur, or that none occur.
Question
Under what statistical hypothesis can you multiply individual event probabilities to compute:
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P(all occur) = ∏ P(Ei), and
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P(none occur) = ∏ (1 − P(Ei))?
Constraints & Assumptions
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Preserve the scope, facts, inputs, and requested outputs from the prompt above.
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If the prompt leaves a detail unspecified, state a reasonable assumption before relying on it.
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Keep the answer interview-ready: concise enough to present, but concrete enough to implement or evaluate.
Clarifying Questions to Ask
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Clarify the random variables, distributional assumptions, independence assumptions, and desired output.
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Show enough derivation for the interviewer to follow the reasoning.
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Explain how you would validate the result with simulation or sensitivity checks.
What a Strong Answer Covers
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A correct setup with definitions, formulas, and boundary conditions.
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A step-by-step derivation or estimation plan.
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Interpretation of the result, including uncertainty and practical limitations.
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Checks for assumptions, edge cases, and numerical stability.
Follow-up Questions
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How would the result change if the assumptions were relaxed?
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Can you verify the answer with a simulation?
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What is the most likely source of estimation error?