Diagnosing Why More Walmart Orders Are Being Returned

You are a product manager at Walmart. The share of orders that customers return has been climbing. What would you look into, and in what order, to isolate the cause? ```hint Check the number before the business Before listing possible causes, ask whether the metric itself moved for a real reason: how it is computed, and whether the returns, the orders behind them, or the mix of those orders changed. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - How is the return rate defined: returned orders over orders, returned units, or returned sales value, and is it counted by the date of the return or by the date of the original purchase? - Did it rise suddenly or gradually, and since when? Is it also higher than in the same weeks last year? - Which purchases are in scope: in-store sales, online orders shipped or picked up, grocery orders, and items sold by third-party marketplace sellers? - Has anything changed recently in the return policy, the ways customers can return items, or how returns are recorded? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - Validating the metric's definition and data before diagnosing anything. - Separating a change in returns from a change in orders, and a true rate change from a shift in the mix of channels or categories. - A segmentation checked in a sensible order (channel, category, seller, fulfillment path, region, customer cohort, return reason). - Internal and external hypotheses, each tied to the data that would confirm or rule it out. - How to confirm the root cause, size its contribution, and judge whether the rise is actually bad for the business. ### Follow-up Questions - Every category's return rate is flat, yet the overall rate went up. How is that possible, and what would you check? - The rise traces to a new, easier way to return online orders. Is that a problem, and how would you decide? - The extra returns are concentrated in a small set of third-party sellers. What do you do next?