Estimating the Bike Fleet Size for a New City Bike-Share Launch

Choose any city and assume you are launching a bike-share service there. Estimate how many bikes the service needs. ```hint Think about idle bikes Bikes being ridden are only part of the fleet. Consider how many must already be parked where trips begin so riders find one, and how many are out of service at any moment. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Is the system docked, dockless or a mix, and does it include e-bikes? - Should the service cover the whole city at launch, or start in a dense core and expand? - Should the fleet be sized for an average day or for a busy weekday in peak season? - Is the launch fleet limited by a budget or by a cap in the city's permit? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A clear choice of city and launch service area, with the population or trip base stated as labeled assumptions. - A structured equation from daily trip demand to bikes, using a realistic trips-per-bike assumption. - Allowance for uneven demand across hours and locations, plus bikes out for repair or rebalancing. - A sanity check through an independent method, such as station coverage, and the range the uncertainty implies. - How the estimate would be revised after launch using utilization data. ### Follow-up Questions - After launch, outer-zone bikes average under one trip a day while downtown stations run empty by 8 a.m. What do you change? - How does the estimate change if half the fleet is e-bikes? - In a city with cold winters, how does seasonality change the fleet you own versus the fleet you deploy?