Estimation Case: Sizing the Annual US Bathroom Tissue Market

Estimate the size of the toilet paper market in the United States. Lay out how you structure the estimate, label each assumption, and finish with a figure and a range you are comfortable defending. ```hint Pick a unit you can picture Decide what you will count (sheets, rolls or packs) and how one person's daily use becomes a yearly amount in that unit before you attach any price to it. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Is the market measured in annual dollars, in units such as rolls, or both? - Does it include use away from home, in offices, schools, restaurants and airports, or only what households buy? - Should dollars be counted at the shelf price consumers pay or as manufacturers' revenue? - How precise does the answer need to be: an order of magnitude, or within a factor of two? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A scoped definition of the market (unit, households versus away-from-home use, retail versus manufacturer value) agreed before any arithmetic - A top-line equation that links people and their usage to dollars - Labeled, round assumptions, each with a short rationale tied to how toilet paper is actually used and bought - Arithmetic that is correct, unit-consistent and easy to follow - A sanity check from a second angle and a final range ### Follow-up Questions - Which assumption moves your answer the most, and how would you tighten it? - How would your estimate change if bidets became common in US homes? - How would you split the market between national brands and store brands, and why would a retailer care about that split?