Fermi estimate of how many hotel properties New York City has

Quick Overview

A product manager estimation exercise that asks for the number of hotels in New York City. It tests scoping what counts as a hotel, building an equation from visitor demand to occupied rooms to properties, stating round assumptions about stays, occupancy and hotel size, and sanity-checking the result.

Fermi estimate of how many hotel properties New York City has

Company: Google

Role: Product Manager

Category: Product / Decision Making

Difficulty: medium

Interview Round: Other

How many hotels does New York City have? Give an estimate with a sensible range, show the equation behind it, and say which of your inputs you trust least. ```hint Rooms before buildings Hotels in a city like this range from small guesthouses to very large towers. An estimate of rooms first, converted into properties afterwards, is easier to defend than a direct guess at the number of buildings. ``` ### Clarifying Questions - Does New York City mean the five boroughs only, or the wider metropolitan area, including hotels across the river in New Jersey? - Which properties count as hotels: are motels, hostels and extended-stay buildings in, and are short-term apartment rentals out? - Is the answer a count of properties, or would a count of rooms be acceptable? - Should the estimate reflect a normal travel year rather than a period when travel was disrupted? ### What a Strong Answer Covers - A pinned-down scope: geography, what counts as a hotel, and properties versus rooms. - An equation that turns visitor demand (or another defensible starting point) into rooms needed per night and then into properties, allowing for visitors who do not stay in hotels and for rooms that sit empty. - Round, labeled assumptions for every input, including a realistic spread of hotel sizes for this city instead of one generic size. - Correct arithmetic, a final number with a range, and a sanity check from an independent angle. - A clear view of which input moves the result most. ### Follow-up Questions - Which assumption has the largest effect on your answer, and how would you tighten it within an hour using public data? - How would you estimate the same number from the supply side, and where would you expect that method to disagree with yours? - If a travel search product needed this figure to plan its coverage of hotel listings, would you give it properties or rooms, and why?

Overview: A product manager estimation exercise that asks for the number of hotels in New York City. It tests scoping what counts as a hotel, building an equation from visitor demand to occupied rooms to properties, stating round assumptions about stays, occupancy and hotel size, and sanity-checking the result.

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Google
Aug 24, 2024
mediumProduct ManagerOtherProduct / Decision Making
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How many hotels does New York City have? Give an estimate with a sensible range, show the equation behind it, and say which of your inputs you trust least.

Clarifying Questions Guidance

  • Does New York City mean the five boroughs only, or the wider metropolitan area, including hotels across the river in New Jersey?
  • Which properties count as hotels: are motels, hostels and extended-stay buildings in, and are short-term apartment rentals out?
  • Is the answer a count of properties, or would a count of rooms be acceptable?
  • Should the estimate reflect a normal travel year rather than a period when travel was disrupted?

What a Strong Answer Covers Guidance

  • A pinned-down scope: geography, what counts as a hotel, and properties versus rooms.
  • An equation that turns visitor demand (or another defensible starting point) into rooms needed per night and then into properties, allowing for visitors who do not stay in hotels and for rooms that sit empty.
  • Round, labeled assumptions for every input, including a realistic spread of hotel sizes for this city instead of one generic size.
  • Correct arithmetic, a final number with a range, and a sanity check from an independent angle.
  • A clear view of which input moves the result most.

Follow-up Questions Guidance

  • Which assumption has the largest effect on your answer, and how would you tighten it within an hour using public data?
  • How would you estimate the same number from the supply side, and where would you expect that method to disagree with yours?
  • If a travel search product needed this figure to plan its coverage of hotel listings, would you give it properties or rooms, and why?